President William Ruto remains the leading presidential contender ahead of the 2027 General Election, but a new TIFA survey shows Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna has edged out Kalonzo Musyoka and Fred Matiang’i as the opposition figure viewed as having the best chance of defeating the incumbent.
According to the survey released on Friday, July 24, and seen by Newsflash, Ruto tops the preferred presidential candidates with 24 per cent, followed by Sifuna at 15 per cent, Matiang’i at 14 per cent, Kalonzo at 13 per cent, Rigathi Gachagua at 7 per cent, and Babu Owino at 2 per cent. Another 20 per cent of respondents said they were undecided.
TIFA noted that while Ruto continues to lead the race, the opposition vote remains fragmented among several aspirants, making it difficult for any single candidate to mount a formidable challenge at this stage.
The survey further shows Sifuna has recorded the fastest rise among opposition leaders. His support has climbed from 10 per cent in May 2026 to 15 per cent in June, overtaking both Kalonzo and Matiang’i in voter preference, while Kalonzo’s popularity has fallen sharply from 25 per cent in November 2025 to 13 per cent.
Politics
When respondents were asked which opposition leader stood the best chance of defeating President Ruto in next year’s election, Sifuna again emerged ahead with 18 per cent, narrowly edging Matiang’i, who also scored 18 per cent, while Kalonzo followed at 16 per cent and Gachagua at 14 per cent. Six per cent said no opposition candidate could defeat Ruto, while 10 per cent were unsure. TIFA clarified that these findings reflect public perceptions of candidate strength rather than actual voting intentions.
Linda Mwananchi gains momentum
The survey also found growing support for the Linda Mwananchi faction within ODM, led by Sifuna and his allies, compared to the Linda Ground camp associated with Oburu Odinga and supporters of the Broad-Based Government (BBG).
Among ODM supporters, 74 per cent backed Linda Mwananchi compared to 20 per cent for Linda Ground, indicating that the anti-BBG faction has consolidated its grip within the party. TIFA noted that support for Linda Mwananchi has increased while backing for Linda Ground has continued to
The findings come amid persistent divisions within ODM over its cooperation with President Ruto through the Broad-Based Government arrangement.
Nationally, support for the BBG remains below one-third of Kenyans. The poll found 30 per cent supporting the arrangement against 52 per cent who oppose it, while 15 per cent expressed no opinion and 4 per cent said they were unaware of it.
Regionally, TIFA reported declining support for the BBG in several parts of the country, including Northern, Nyanza and Mt Kenya, while support remained substantially lower than the November 2025 levels across most regions. Western recorded one of the steepest declines, dropping from 62 per cent in November 2025 to 29 per cent in June 2026, while Nyanza fell from 59 per cent to 35 per cent.
The survey, conducted between June 13 and June 22, 2026, interviewed 2,048 randomly selected adults across all 47 counties and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.18 percentage points.
